President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures, announced on Wednesday, are set to disrupt trade flows between the United States and Africa, analysts warn, and may hasten a shift toward China as the continent’s primary partner.
Trump’s plan introduces a universal 10 percent duty on all imports into the US, alongside steeper “reciprocal” levies—ranging from 14 percent for Nigeria to 31 percent for South Africa—on nations deemed to impose unfair barriers on American goods. These additional tariffs, effective April 9, directly challenge the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the 25-year‑old framework that has underpinned duty‑free access for some 1,800 products from 32 sub‑Saharan countries.
AGOA’s Future in Doubt
Established in 2000 and last renewed in 2015, AGOA has driven growth in textiles, agriculture and automotive components across Africa. Yet experts say the new US duties effectively nullify AGOA’s benefits, jeopardizing its planned renewal in September. “These tariffs set AGOA on a path to irrelevance,” said Cheta Nwanze of Lagos‑based SBM Intelligence.
Southern Africa Hit Hardest
Lesotho faces the highest levy at 50 percent—compounding the impact of recent US aid cuts on its HIV response—while Madagascar and Mauritius will pay 47 percent and 40 percent respectively. Botswana (37 percent) and Angola (32 percent) also rank among the worst‑affected.
A separate 25 percent tariff on all foreign‑made vehicles, already in force, further strains South Africa’s automotive sector, which exports some $2 billion in cars and parts to the US under AGOA.
Broader Continental Impact
Beyond the “offender” list, a range of African states will incur tariffs above the 10 percent baseline: Algeria (30 percent), Ivory Coast (21 percent), Tunisia (28 percent), Zambia (17 percent) and Zimbabwe (18 percent), among others. Higher export costs risk eroding competitiveness, reducing revenues and triggering job losses in key industries.
Official Pushback
South Africa’s government denounced the measures as “punitive,” calling for urgent negotiations. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s office argued that South African auto exports account for less than 1 percent of US imports in that category and pledged to seek redress in Washington.
Economic Consequences
Nigeria, already grappling with inflation and food insecurity, and South Africa, with one of the world’s highest unemployment rates, are expected to bear the brunt of the tariffs. Anchor Capital economist Casey Sprake had warned that a 25 percent duty could shave up to 0.3 percentage points off South Africa’s GDP growth—a projection eclipsed by the final 31 percent rate.
Looking East
With US‑Africa trade ties under strain, many governments are likely to deepen economic relations with China, which has been the continent’s largest trading partner for nearly two decades. Beijing’s appetite for raw materials—from oil to copper—and its exports of electronics position it as an increasingly attractive alternative.
As Africa recalibrates its trade strategy, the long‑standing partnership with the United States faces an uncertain future, and the legacy of AGOA hangs in the balance.