Somaliland is set to hold its presidential election tomorrow, Wednesday, November 13, 2024, as over 1 million registered voters prepare to cast their ballots in a race that sees incumbent President Muse Bihi Abdi, opposition leader Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro,” and Faisal Ali Warabe competing for the top office. This election takes place in the midst of growing diplomatic tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, largely centered around a controversial maritime agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia.
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has never been internationally recognized as a sovereign state, yet it maintains a functioning government, military, and institutions. Despite its unrecognized status, the region has operated with relative stability, making it a beacon of democracy in the Horn of Africa. However, the situation is fraught with challenges.
President Bihi, who has held office since 2017, seeks a second term in an election marked by accusations of authoritarian governance and divisiveness, particularly following the delayed election in 2022, which led to public protests. His main rival, Irro of the Waddani party, promises to focus on national unity and renew talks with Somalia. Warabe, leader of the Justice and Development Party (UCID), is advocating for a path toward international recognition. All candidates have made promises to strengthen democracy, improve economic growth, and continue efforts toward Somaliland’s recognition.
A focal point of the election is the controversial Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed between Somaliland and Ethiopia, which grants Ethiopia access to a 20-kilometre stretch of the Red Sea coast in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence. This deal has strained relations between Somaliland and Somalia, with Somalia accusing Ethiopia of violating its territorial integrity. Somalia’s reaction has included the expulsion of Ethiopian diplomats, raising tensions in the Horn of Africa.
In addition to the political and diplomatic challenges, Somaliland is also facing criticism for its internal divisions, including ongoing clan tensions and the loss of the Sool region to the SSC in 2023. The SSC, a faction that operates within the former British-Somaliland territory, seeks a governance aligned with the Union, although Somalia has not yet recognized it as an official regional state, likely due to clan dynamics. Despite these hurdles, the election is a critical moment for Somaliland, as it seeks to assert its independence and push forward its aspirations for international recognition.
Taiwan has provided additional support for the election, including iris biometric devices that were originally donated in 2021, to ensure transparency and accountability in the electoral process. The election is viewed as a significant step in Somaliland’s long-standing goal of being recognized as an independent nation, despite the ongoing regional tensions that continue to shape its political landscape.
This election is expected to attract interest from other actors, as Somaliland’s strategic location in the Horn of Africa has drawn attention from various international players. The outcome of this election will have implications not only for Somaliland but for the broader region, influencing the future dynamics of the Horn of Africa
