The re-election of Ahmed Islam Madobe as president of Jubaland State has escalated tensions with Somalia’s federal government, which has declared the election illegal. Federal troops, including elite units, have been deployed to Ras Kamboni, located 274 kilometers from Kismayo, the capital of Jubaland, and several districts in the Gedo region, intensifying the standoff between the two administrations.
Madobe, re-elected by Jubaland’s regional parliament with 55 votes, has rejected federal interference, declaring himself the sole authority in Jubaland. In his inauguration speech, he accused Mogadishu of attempting to destabilize his administration and vowed to resist any federal military actions.
The federal government views Madobe’s election as unconstitutional and in violation of Somalia’s electoral framework, which President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is pushing to centralize. Under his “one-person, one-vote” election plan, the federal government aims to implement direct elections nationwide, a proposal Madobe and many opposition figures have opposed, citing the ongoing threat posed by Alshabab. The opposition argues that such a system is unrealistic in the current security climate and accuses President Mohamud of using it to secure re-election or seek an extension of his term.
In response to the election, federal authorities staged a parallel vote in Kismayo, backed by a senator aligned with Mogadishu, further fueling tensions. Jubaland’s administration condemned the troop deployments, accusing the federal government of attempting to destabilize the region. Puntland has voiced support for Jubaland’s position, criticizing Mogadishu’s handling of regional autonomy and elections.
Federal forces have also been mobilized in Gedo, an area where the federal government seeks to challenge Jubaland’s influence. At the same time, negotiations led by the federal government aim to integrate Jubaland’s forces into the national army, a move Jubaland views as an attempt to weaken its autonomy.
The dispute is further complicated by Alshabab’s continued control over large swaths of Jubaland, making the federal government’s push for direct elections more contentious. Ethiopian troops stationed in Gedo remain another flashpoint, with Jubaland supporting their presence for operations against Al-Shabab militants, while Mogadishu has called for their withdrawal, citing concerns over regional interference.
As both sides reinforce their positions, the risk of a larger conflict looms, threatening not only the stability of Jubaland but also the fragile federal structure of Somalia.
