Somalia is reportedly on the verge of signing a security agreement with Iraq, a move raising alarms over potential Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) involvement in East Africa, regional intelligence sources indicate.
A high-level Somali delegation, led by National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) Director Abdullahi Mohamed Ali “Sanbaloolshe,” is expected to travel to Baghdad under the diplomatic cover of the Arab League Summit this weekend. Sanbaloolshe, a dual Somali-British national, is reportedly set to hold discussions with senior Iraqi security officials and representatives linked to the IRGC’s elite Quds Force.
The proposed agreement, which follows a visit by Iraqi Interior Minister Abdul Amir al-Shammari to Mogadishu in April, includes counterterrorism cooperation, military training, and intelligence sharing. Somali government statements have framed the deal as part of a broader effort to strengthen bilateral ties and draw from Iraq’s experience in fighting extremist groups like ISIS.
However, sources familiar with the matter suggest that the agreement includes a classified annex detailing collaboration between Somali and Iranian security channels, particularly the IRGC—a force widely known for supporting militias in the Middle East.
Concerns have mounted among international observers that the IRGC could use the pact to expand its covert network in East Africa. According to analysts, the Quds Force has already been implicated in supplying weapons and military training to groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“The implications of a deeper Somali-Iraqi-Iranian security axis are serious,” one regional diplomat warned. “It risks creating new regional tensions and undermining Somalia’s existing cooperation with Western partners.”
The Somali government has not publicly addressed these claims. However, Foreign Ministry officials have emphasized that any agreement with Iraq will focus on mutual efforts against terrorism. Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre’s office has remained silent on the alleged IRGC involvement.
Reports suggest Iranian interest in Somalia has increased amid claims that the UAE and Israel are installing surveillance and defense infrastructure in Puntland, a region that maintains its own security ties with the U.S. and the Emirates.
While Puntland and Somaliland have aligned more closely with Western security agendas, the Federal Government in Mogadishu sees these moves as a challenge to its sovereignty and control. Some in Mogadishu believe deeper ties with Iraq—and indirectly, Iran—could help balance external influences.
International observers remain cautious. Past UN investigations have flagged Somalia’s coastal regions as transit points for illicit arms shipments originating from Iran, raising questions about whether this new partnership could be used to widen Tehran’s strategic reach.
As Mogadishu navigates its next foreign policy steps, the prospect of IRGC-linked cooperation looms large, potentially reshaping the region’s already volatile security dynamics.