Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in the Egyptian city of El-Alamein on Sunday for an official visit, where he is expected to hold talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The visit comes at a time of heightened regional tensions, particularly surrounding Ethiopia’s imminent inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a controversial hydropower project on the Nile River.
During the visit, the two leaders are expected to discuss a range of bilateral issues, including cooperation in the areas of security, trade, education, and regional diplomacy. Egyptian media reports also suggest that the talks will include discussions on maritime security in the Red Sea, and Egypt’s potential involvement in Somalia’s upcoming post-ATMIS peacekeeping phase, known as the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
President Mohamud’s visit reflects Somalia’s increasing diplomatic engagement in a region where water disputes, shifting alliances, and security threats are reshaping the political landscape. Egypt views Somalia as a strategically important partner due to its geographic position along the Red Sea and its role within both the Arab League and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
At the center of the regional tension is Ethiopia’s GERD project, which Egypt and Sudan fear could significantly reduce their share of Nile waters. Ethiopia has invited leaders from neighboring countries, including Somalia, to attend the inauguration ceremony of the dam’s final phase. However, Somalia has yet to respond to the invitation, reflecting the complex diplomatic tightrope it faces.
Political analysts say Somalia is trying to maintain a balanced approach amid competing pressures. Accepting Ethiopia’s invitation might be seen as aligning with Addis Ababa’s controversial water strategy, while declining could strain ties with an important neighbor.
Egypt, for its part, hopes to deepen its relationship with Somalia to gain influence in the Horn of Africa and to counterbalance Ethiopia’s regional reach. Cairo is particularly interested in strengthening its presence along key maritime routes and enhancing cooperation on counter-terrorism and intelligence sharing.
The visit is expected to conclude with a joint communiqué, and Somali officials have hinted at a possible defense cooperation agreement that could provide Somali naval forces with training support from Egypt.
Whether or not Somalia chooses to participate in Ethiopia’s dam ceremony in the coming weeks will be closely watched, as it may signal the direction of Somalia’s foreign policy at a time when regional alliances are increasingly being shaped by water, security, and diplomacy.