As Ondo State approaches its gubernatorial election, several political parties are gearing up for a crucial battle for the state’s leadership. The two dominant forces in the state remain the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), with a mix of smaller parties also vying for influence. Each party has its unique strategies, candidates, and voter bases, which will significantly shape the outcome of the election.
All Progressives Congress (APC) – Dominant but Divided
The APC, under the leadership of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, is the ruling party in Ondo State. Aiyedatiwa, who is seeking a second term, faces significant challenges despite his party’s dominance. The APC’s position has been strengthened by its control over public resources, which many believe gives it an electoral advantage. However, internal conflicts and rivalries threaten to undermine its unity.
One of the key challenges for the APC comes from Jimoh Ibrahim, a prominent APC member from Ondo South. Ibrahim has yet to declare his support for Aiyedatiwa, adding an element of uncertainty to the party’s prospects. Ibrahim’s previous challenge to Aiyedatiwa’s nomination, which was resolved through an intervention by President Bola Tinubu, has left lingering tensions. Some sources within the APC warn that Ibrahim’s refusal to fully back Aiyedatiwa could damage his political future, especially his Senate aspirations in 2027.
Despite these internal struggles, Aiyedatiwa’s campaign has largely distanced itself from former Governor Akeredolu’s loyalists, focusing on its own messaging and projecting a united front. However, the waning influence of the Aketi movement, associated with Akeredolu, may pose challenges for the APC’s cohesion as the election nears.
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) – A Determined Opposition
The PDP, led by Agboola Ajayi, is the primary opposition party in Ondo State. Ajayi, who was once the deputy governor under Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, has been vocal in his criticism of the current administration. His departure from Akeredolu’s government in 2020, following a fallout with the governor, fueled accusations of disloyalty from both the APC and PDP camps.
Despite facing defections that have weakened its base, the PDP remains optimistic about defeating Aiyedatiwa. Ajayi’s campaign is centered on promises of reform and financial incentives to sway voters, a strategy aimed at countering the APC’s significant financial advantage. Ajayi’s past as deputy governor gives him strong recognition among voters, particularly in Ondo South, where he hails from. However, the PDP’s ability to expand its appeal beyond the southern district remains uncertain, given the dominance of the APC in other regions of the state.
Ajayi’s rivalry with Aiyedatiwa, who is also from Ondo South, adds a layer of complexity to the contest, with the vote in this region expected to be split. Ajayi’s supporters are hopeful that his promises of economic empowerment and reform will resonate with voters seeking change.
Smaller Parties – The Unexpected Contenders
While the APC and PDP dominate the electoral landscape, smaller parties such as the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Labour Party (LP), and Social Democratic Party (SDP) are also participating in the election, albeit with limited chances of winning. These parties are primarily focused on specific issues or regional concerns, often acting as kingmakers rather than frontrunners.
The NNPP, LP, and SDP are expected to sway votes in specific areas, particularly where the two main parties have a weaker presence. These parties may also enter into strategic alliances with the larger contenders, potentially influencing the election’s final outcome. While they lack the extensive financial resources of the APC and PDP, they have been able to carve out niches among voters disillusioned with the two-party system.
One critical aspect of these smaller parties’ campaigns is their role in vote trading. In Ondo State, reports indicate that politicians from both the major and minor parties are mobilizing voters with promises of goods and services, such as rice, maize, and fertilizers. This practice of incentivizing voters raises concerns about the integrity of the election, as political leaders seek to sway the electorate through material promises rather than substantive policy discussions.
Election Strategies: Vote Trading and Financial Incentives
Vote trading is a key issue in the Ondo State election, with politicians leveraging financial resources to influence voter behavior. Yiaga, a civil society organization monitoring the election, has highlighted reports of vote-buying and the distribution of goods through community leaders. While the APC has denied these allegations, asserting that Yiaga’s observations were inaccurate, there is a growing concern that the influence of money could shape the election results, especially in areas where candidates are struggling to gain traction.
Ajayi’s PDP campaign has also been linked to promises of financial incentives, further complicating the election landscape. The strategic use of money in elections, while not unique to Ondo, has raised questions about the fairness of the process, with critics arguing that it could lead to a scenario where voters make decisions based on personal gain rather than the policies and ideologies of the candidates.
The Future of Ondo State: Voter Engagement and Party Alliances
As election day draws closer, the strategies and alliances formed by the parties will play a crucial role in determining the winner. While the APC and PDP are the major contenders, the influence of smaller parties cannot be underestimated, especially if they decide to align with one of the larger parties or become involved in vote trading.
The political landscape in Ondo State is fluid, and while some observers believe the election will be largely decided by regional loyalties and financial power, others argue that there is still a chance for new political forces to emerge. Ultimately, the election will be a test of which party can best mobilize its base, engage with voters, and secure the support of key stakeholders, including influential political figures like Jimoh Ibrahim.
With the deployment of over 40,000 security personnel to ensure a peaceful election, all eyes are on Ondo State as the political battle intensifies. The outcome of this election could have far-reaching implications for the state’s future governance and the broader political dynamics in Nigeria.
