As of early 2025, Morocco’s economy is navigating a path toward recovery, balancing challenges such as prolonged droughts and global economic uncertainties with strategic investments and policy reforms.
Various institutions have provided growth forecasts for Morocco’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025:
- Government Forecast: The Moroccan government anticipates a GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025, acknowledging that global developments could influence this projection.
- International Monetary Fund: The IMF projects a 3.6% growth rate for Morocco in 2025.
- World Bank: The World Bank forecasts a 3.9% expansion in 2025, attributing this optimism to a rebound in agriculture and ongoing fiscal reforms.
- United Nations: The UN anticipates a 3.2% growth in 2025, with a slight increase to 3.4% in 2026.
Sectoral Contributions
- Agriculture: The agricultural sector, a cornerstone of Morocco’s economy, has faced significant challenges due to consecutive years of drought. In 2024, the sector lost approximately 137,000 jobs, contributing to an increase in the national unemployment rate to 13.3%. However, projections for 2025 are more optimistic, with expectations of a 4.1% growth, contingent upon favorable weather conditions.
- Industry and Services: The services sector has been a significant contributor to job creation, followed by industry and construction. Investments in key industries, including renewable energy and infrastructure, are anticipated to bolster economic performance. Notably, collaborations with international partners have led to substantial projects, such as the €10 billion investment to extend Morocco’s high-speed rail to Marrakech, announced during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Rabat.
International Partnerships and Investments
Morocco continues to strengthen its international partnerships, attracting foreign investments that are pivotal for economic growth:
- France: The strategic partnership with France has been reinforced through significant investments in renewable energy and transportation infrastructure. The high-speed rail project to Marrakech is a testament to this collaboration.
- China: China has emerged as a key investor, particularly in Morocco’s infrastructure and automotive sectors. A notable development is the announcement by Chinese EV battery manufacturer Gotion High Tech to establish Africa’s first gigafactory in Morocco, with an investment of $1.3 billion.
Challenges and Policy Responses
Despite positive projections, Morocco faces challenges such as high unemployment rates, especially among youth (36.7%) and graduates (19.6%). The government has pledged to invest $1.4 billion in 2025 to create jobs, focusing on small and medium enterprises and youth employment.
Inflation is projected to decline slightly to 3.8% in 2025, aided by decreasing global food prices. The budget deficit is also expected to narrow to 4.2% of GDP, supported by economic recovery and reduced subsidies on butane gas prices.
In summary, Morocco’s economy in 2025 is poised for recovery, driven by strategic investments, international partnerships, and policy reforms aimed at addressing structural challenges and fostering sustainable growth.