Kenya’s tea industry is bracing for potential economic shocks as the Israel–Iran conflict casts uncertainty over one of its key export markets.
Iran has long been a crucial destination for Kenyan tea, with trade between the two countries valued at over KSh 5.9 billion in 2023. However, renewed hostilities in the Middle East threaten to disrupt ongoing negotiations aimed at expanding this trade partnership.
Just days before the conflict escalated, Kenya’s Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe had met with Iran’s Ambassador to Kenya, Dr. Ali Gholampour, to explore ways of strengthening tea and oil trade. Those talks now hang in the balance.
Local stakeholders are concerned. “This war could further destabilize an already fragile market,” said David Lang’at, a tea grower from Nandi County. “Prices have been falling, and our production costs remain high.”
Kenyan exporters have previously faced challenges in receiving payments from Iran due to sanctions and restrictions on international financial transfers. Now, with rising geopolitical tensions, delays and disruptions in trade logistics are feared.
According to international trade data, Kenya exported approximately $46 million worth of goods to Iran in 2023 — primarily black tea — while importing nearly $28 million. Tea from Kenya has been a staple in the Iranian market, but oversupply in the global market has already caused a backlog of around 119 million kilograms of unsold tea, mainly at the Mombasa auction.
“The market glut is worsening. If Iran is further isolated, we may have to look elsewhere — but few markets absorb tea like Iran does,” said Eric Kosgei, a trader and small-scale farmer.
Industry analysts warn that continued instability in the Middle East could weaken global commodity prices, deepen farmer losses, and delay much-needed reforms in Kenya’s tea sector.
As the international situation evolves, Kenyan farmers find themselves watching global news more closely — their livelihoods now tightly linked to events far beyond their borders.