For South Africa’s new government of national unity (GNU), addressing the country’s energy crisis is the most pressing and critical priority. Persistent power outages, locally known as “load-shedding,” have severely impacted the South African economy. These scheduled blackouts can leave households without electricity for hours at a time. The economic effects are substantial: consultants PwC estimate that load-shedding likely reduced potential real GDP growth by five percentage points in 2022, while the South Africa Reserve Bank forecasts a 0.6 percentage point reduction in GDP growth for this year. The frustration and inconvenience experienced by South Africans are significant but hard to quantify.
Since early 2024, load-shedding has lessened, thanks to a reduction in maintenance issues at power stations and the swift installation of rooftop solar panels, which has eased pressure on the grid.
However, the inability to provide a stable power supply has been a major factor in the African National Congress losing public support. After 30 years in power, voter patience has worn thin. There were concerns among business leaders that the elections might bring radical factions into power and influence energy policy.
The election on 29 May and the subsequent coalition discussions led to a blend of stability and change. The ANC continues to lead the government and hold key ministerial roles affecting energy policy. Yet, a reorganization of departmental duties and the inclusion of the centre-right Democratic Alliance alongside other smaller parties in the coalition suggest potential for a reform-driven agenda.
Averted nightmare
From an investment standpoint, there was genuine concern that the election might lead to a populist shift that could significantly restrict market-driven solutions to the energy crisis. In the end, however, the Democratic Alliance (DA) emerged as the ANC’s principal partner in the Government of National Unity, averting the feared “doomsday coalition” and suggesting a move towards a more centrist approach.
When President Cyril Ramaphosa announced his cabinet on 30 June, it initially seemed that there would be no significant changes in energy policy. Gwede Mantashe and Kgosientsho Ramokgopa from the ANC retained their key roles in the sector, and no ministers from the DA or smaller coalition parties will handle energy issues.
“Given that the ANC still controls the energy portfolio, the DA and other coalition members in the government of national unity are unlikely to directly influence energy policy,” comments Michael Bongani Reinders, an analyst at Control Risks.
The latest cabinet changes have introduced a seemingly minor but potentially impactful adjustment. The Department for Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), formerly led by Mantashe, has been restructured. Ramokgopa now assumes the role of minister of electricity and energy, a step up from his previous position as minister in the presidency for electricity.
“Investors are likely to view Ramokgopa’s new appointment positively, given his previous efforts to address the energy crisis and his new, comprehensive control over the sector,” says Reinders.
Tracy Ledger, head of the energy transition program at the Public Affairs Research Institute, supports the split of the DMRE, describing it as a favorable development. She points out that the department had previously taken a “resistant stance” on renewable energy, noting that Mantashe, a powerful ANC figure, was openly supportive of fossil fuels.
Mantashe has clearly expressed his doubts about Ramaphosa’s efforts to speed up the development of wind and solar energy as a solution to the load-shedding crisis. He has repeatedly criticized the Just Energy Transition Plan, which seeks international funding to accelerate the country’s decarbonization efforts. Mantashe has also maintained that coal should continue to be the primary source of power generation.
With Ramokgopa now appointed as minister of electricity and energy, Mantashe’s role in shaping renewable energy policy has been largely reduced. Nevertheless, Mantashe still retains oversight of oil and gas policy.
TotalEnergies has made notable gas discoveries off Mossel Bay on South Africa’s southern coast but is reportedly considering divesting these assets due to concerns about their commercial prospects. Mantashe’s task will be to attract investment by demonstrating the potential of these gas fields. Additionally, oil and gas exploration is ongoing in the Orange Basin, which extends across the South Africa-Namibia border.

Increasing the use of renewables
Following the most substantial overhaul of the South African government since the end of apartheid, there are high hopes that the coalition will bring about significant changes in the energy sector.
“Everyone is expecting a great deal from the GNU,” warns David Everatt, professor at the Wits School of Governance. He recognizes the major challenges the coalition will face but believes that Ramokgopa, with the support of the president, is ready to fully commit to advancing renewable energy.
“I definitely think the energy transition will now gain much more momentum,” he notes. “The ANC has effectively eliminated many of the entrenched interests that were impeding progress.”
Early signs suggest that both Ramaphosa and Ramokgopa are determined to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
On 15 July, the president spoke at a climate change conference, highlighting that carbon taxes being introduced in developed economies, such as the EU’s planned Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, make it unsustainable for South Africa to maintain its reliance on coal. “This dependence has become a significant risk,” he remarked.
Three days later, Ramaphosa addressed the South African parliament, stating that renewables have the potential to drive “substantial growth and job creation over the next decade and beyond.” He highlighted that the green industrial revolution presents a significant opportunity for South Africa.
“South Africa must develop a green manufacturing sector focused on exporting green hydrogen and related products, electric vehicles, and renewable energy components,” Ramaphosa emphasized.
On 23 July, the president signed the Climate Change Act into law, which grants the environment minister authority to assign carbon budgets to major emitters, requiring them to cut their emissions progressively.
These positive indications about South Africa’s commitment to the energy transition reflect a shift in momentum rather than a change in direction.
Deon Fourie, lead economist at Oxford Economics Africa, points out that while there may not be “major policy changes per se,” the new government is likely to show “increased political backing” for the push toward renewable energy and related technologies, including grid improvements to facilitate the adoption of renewables.
“This suggests that South Africa can expect enhancements in energy security, stability, and affordability,” he adds.
Already, renewable energy is beneficial
The deployment of wind and solar energy has already had a noticeable impact on addressing South Africa’s energy crisis.
Projects under various rounds of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) have increased the country’s installed energy capacity by about 5%.
More significantly, Ramaphosa’s 2022 decision to lift restrictions on the amount of power businesses and households can generate independently—despite opposition from Mantashe—has triggered a massive increase in rooftop solar installations.
Electricity generated from rooftop panels more than doubled between July 2022 and March 2024, surpassing the output of South Africa’s largest coal-fired power stations. This rapid expansion in solar energy has played a major role in reducing load-shedding.

Challenges persist
Even with recent progress and renewed energy, the GNU faces significant hurdles in maintaining a reliable power supply.
Ongoing maintenance issues with the country’s aging coal-fired power stations could swiftly return South Africa to load-shedding. The grid is already struggling to manage power demand spikes during unfavorable weather conditions, even with all units operating at full capacity. The expansion of renewable energy is still in its early stages, and coal continues to provide approximately 80% of the country’s electricity. This heavy reliance on coal makes South Africa one of the most carbon-intensive economies in the world, according to the energy think tank Ember. “The significant challenges in the energy sector won’t disappear just because there’s a new government,” warns Ledger. “To move toward a more developed path, the country will need to boost its electricity generation by 30% to 50%.”
Nuclear energy debate
A potential source of division within the GNU is the issue of nuclear energy. In July, Ramokgopa referred to additional nuclear capacity as “important” for the country, though he noted that new reactors must be developed at “a scale and speed that we can afford.”
Beyond increasing generation capacity, the grid itself urgently needs modernization. This was starkly evident in December 2022 when a REIPPPP bidding round resulted in securing only a small portion of the planned capacity. The problem arose due to inadequate transmission infrastructure needed to deliver electricity from wind and solar projects in remote areas to major urban centers.
Additionally, the future of Eskom remains unresolved. The state-owned utility, severely impacted by mismanagement and corruption, still manages most of South Africa’s electricity infrastructure, despite the gradual rise of independent power producers.
“There’s a clear conflict between what’s beneficial for Eskom and what’s best for the broader economy,” Ledger observes. Increasing competition from independent power producers (IPPs) and expanding off-grid solar power could potentially drive Eskom to bankruptcy. However, Ledger believes that making difficult choices is crucial.
“Currently, Eskom neither improves the lives of people living in poverty nor does it help alleviate their struggles,” she points out. “Allowing Eskom to persist in this manner would be extremely damaging to the economy in the long run.”