As French President Emmanuel Macron wrapped up a five-day tour of Mauritius, South Africa, Gabon and Angola, reiterating his pledge that France is “turning the page” in its relations with Africa, analysts say the continent is far from persuaded.
Macron has repeated the same promise for years, but experts argue that France’s credibility has eroded following military withdrawals from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, the collapse of its influence in the Sahel, and political upheaval in Madagascar — once a reliable partner.
“Macron’s Africa policy is reacting to geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts … not being proactive,” Ovigwe Eguegu, a political analyst at consultancy Development Reimagined, told Anadolu. “Talking about turning the page in 2025 is nothing new.”
Old rhetoric, new realities
Macron’s push for a redefined partnership began in 2017 with a speech in Ouagadougou where he declared the end of “Francafrique.” Yet structures of political, economic and military dependency largely remained — until relations rapidly unraveled in recent years.
Mali ended cooperation in 2022 following disputes over Operation Barkhane. Burkina Faso expelled French forces months later amid mass anti-French protests, and Niger cancelled defense deals after its 2023 military takeover.
Madagascar’s recent turmoil, which removed President Andry Rajoelina, further underscored France’s shrinking footprint.
“The coup in Madagascar … is further evidence of a decline of French influence,” Eguegu said. “France is uniquely vulnerable under these dynamics considering the historic character of its ties with Africa.”
Analysts: Macron avoiding political fault lines
Francois Gaulme, an associate research fellow at the French Institute of International Relations, said Macron continues to insist that his 2017 vision remains valid, but avoids acknowledging its shortcomings.
“He doesn’t acknowledge the partial failure of his vision for Africa,” he told Anadolu.
Gaulme noted the speed of Macron’s tour, saying short, tightly packed visits can signal detachment: “You have to take your time in Africa.”
Rather than confronting strained relations in the Sahel, Macron chose to focus on relatively stable partners. Analysts say he has long gravitated toward Anglophone or non-Francophone states such as South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria.
“He has developed policies favoring Anglophone Africa,” Gaulme said, adding that this trend is criticized within France.
Still, Paris sought to show it had not abandoned Francophone allies. Macron’s stop in Gabon — where he stood beside transitional leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, who ousted the Bongo dynasty — was intended as a signal of openness to new leadership rather than old loyalties.
Paul Melly, a consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Africa Program, said the timing of the trip allowed Macron to make “a fairly low-profile early step in rebuilding France’s credibility.”
France retains influence — but no longer dominance
Despite setbacks, analysts say France still wields significant power on the continent through its corporate presence, energy investments, diplomatic networks and large African diaspora.
Melly noted that many African governments still value France’s development role, especially as the US reduces its Africa-focused assistance.
France and the EU remain engaged in climate cooperation, forest protection and long-term development — areas still appreciated by African leaders even as public opinion becomes increasingly skeptical.
Gaulme added that French businesses, from energy firms to pharmaceutical groups, maintain a strong foothold. And despite Sahel withdrawals, France still deploys “several hundred” troops in Africa.
However, analysts stress that the geopolitical landscape has shifted. Africa’s partnerships have diversified to include China, Russia, Türkiye, India and Gulf states.
“African states do not think they have to choose just one or two partners,” Melly said. “They want to connect widely.”
That leaves France no longer the central political actor it once considered itself to be — but one partner among many in a competitive field.