A series of earthquakes and aftershocks across Ethiopia’s Afar, Oromia, and Amhara regions have raised fears of a volcanic eruption, prompting the evacuation of over 80,000 people. However, Sudanese geoscientists have sought to allay concerns about the potential impact of these seismic events on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). They emphasized that the quakes are occurring far from the dam and that the structure was designed to withstand seismic activity.
The latest earthquake, measuring 8.1 on the Richter scale, occurred early today, with its epicenter located to the east of Addis Ababa. This follows a series of previous tremors, including a 5.8 magnitude earthquake on Saturday and a 5.5 magnitude event on Friday, accompanied by numerous aftershocks over the past week. Despite the continued seismic activity, Ethiopian authorities have evacuated approximately 81,750 individuals from the affected areas, citing concerns over potential volcanic activity at the Dofen shield volcano in the northern Main Ethiopian Rift.
In Sudan, experts have downplayed any immediate threat to the GERD. Engineer Abdelkarim El Amin, a Sudanese geoscientist, stated that the epicenter of the latest earthquakes is over 100 kilometers away from the dam, with the most recent tremor originating about 500 kilometers from it. El Amin reassured that the GERD’s design takes seismic events into account and that the dam is structurally capable of handling such occurrences, even at full capacity.
Despite these reassurances, Sudanese experts remain cautious about the broader environmental and security implications of the GERD. El Amin noted that while the dam does not pose an engineering risk, it remains a point of contention and concern due to its impact on the surrounding regions and downstream countries, particularly Sudan and Egypt. The potential consequences of a catastrophic failure, although unlikely, could devastate vast areas, especially in Sudan, where large swaths of land lie in flood-prone low plains.
Talking to Sudanese Dabanga Radio El Amin called for a thorough and scientific review of the dam’s environmental impact, urging Sudanese authorities and regional experts to assess the potential risks to water resources in the Nile Basin without political interference. This move is intended to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the GERD’s effects on Sudan and its neighbors, emphasizing the importance of a collective, apolitical approach to managing water resources in the region.
While the risks of a dam collapse remain minimal, Sudanese experts stress the importance of ongoing monitoring and dialogue to address the GERD’s environmental and security implications for the Nile Basin countries.