Ethiopia is on track to achieve a record 6.5 million tonnes of wheat production in the 2025-26 marketing year, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous year, according to recent projections by agricultural analysts. The growth is attributed to expanded use of irrigated farmland, improved agricultural inputs, and enhanced yields, as part of a broader government initiative to strengthen food security and reduce reliance on imports.
Despite continued growth in domestic demand for wheat and wheat-based products, wheat imports are expected to decline by 24% to 1.3 million tonnes during the same period. Analysts note that while consumption is rising, increasing local output is helping to close the supply gap.
“Ethiopia’s grain strategy is focused on boosting domestic output to limit imports and stabilize market conditions,” a regional agriculture expert noted. “The current trend shows strong progress toward import substitution goals.”
Wheat consumption is forecast to reach 7.82 million tonnes, a 3% rise from the previous year. This is being driven by Ethiopia’s urban growth (estimated at 4.8% annually), population expansion (2.7% annually), and shifting dietary habits that favor processed wheat products such as bread, pasta, biscuits, and pastries—especially in urban centers.
While domestic production gains are promising, commercial wheat imports are still expected to play a key role in balancing the market in the short term, particularly for millers and food manufacturers who require consistent quality and supply.
The Ethiopian government has ramped up its support for the agricultural sector in recent years, investing in irrigation systems, extension services, and access to certified seeds and fertilizers to improve yield potential. These efforts are viewed as critical to reducing vulnerability to global price shocks and enhancing national food self-sufficiency.
As Ethiopia’s agricultural landscape continues to evolve, policymakers and industry stakeholders are closely watching how the balance between local production and imports will shape the country’s grain market in the coming years.