Alshabab militants have launched their most aggressive offensive in months, carrying out coordinated attacks on multiple towns in the Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. The escalation has tested Somalia’s security forces, with the group briefly occupying key areas, including Balcad, a town just 30 kilometers from Mogadishu, before being pushed back by federal troops.
The wave of attacks began on February 20, targeting government forces and clan militias. Alshabab claimed responsibility for nine separate assaults, asserting that it had inflicted heavy casualties on pro-government fighters while temporarily controlling strategic locations. Somali authorities, however, reported repelling most of the offensives, stating that more than 130 militants had been killed. U.S. airstrikes conducted by AFRICOM also targeted Alshabab positions.
Among the towns hit were El Ali Ahmed, Ali Fooldheere, Alkowsar, and Daarunim’a, spanning southern Hiraan and northern Middle Shabelle. While the Somali government insisted that its forces had successfully defended these locations, Alshabab released images showing its fighters inside Alkowsar and Daarunim’a, raising concerns about the effectiveness of security measures.
Fighting intensified on February 21 in El Baraf and Miirtaqwa, where militants briefly occupied government buildings before being driven out. U.S. airstrikes targeted Alshabab positions, but reports indicated that control over El Baraf remained contested.
According to Hiiraan Online, Alshabab expanded its attacks by February 25, striking Aboorey, Beero Yabal, Alkowsar, and El Ali Ahmed. While Somali forces managed to hold Beero Yabal, reports suggested that militants overran a military base in Aboorey. In Balcad, Alshabab temporarily forced government troops to retreat—a significant development given the town’s strategic location near Mogadishu. The government initially denied the incursion, but the militants later released images of their presence in the town. Federal troops regrouped and launched a counterattack, reclaiming Balcad within hours.
The offensive continued on March 1, with an attack on Biyo Adde. Somali officials claimed to have repelled the assault, eliminating senior Alshabab operatives. However, Hiiraan Online reported that the group published photographs indicating it had controlled parts of the town during the clashes.
These recent attacks highlight ongoing security challenges in Somalia. The government had made territorial gains against Alshabab during its 2022-2023 military campaign, but momentum has slowed, allowing the militants to regroup. Planned operations to consolidate control have faced delays, contributing to the resurgence of Alshabab’s offensive.
The government heavily depends on the Ma’awisley militia to secure areas in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle, but internal clan disputes have hindered coordinated efforts. Additionally, the withdrawal of Burundian troops from Middle Shabelle under the African Union’s stabilization mission (AUSSOM) has created further vulnerabilities. Ugandan forces are expected to replace them, but the transition has been slow, leaving security gaps that Alshabab has exploited.
Alshabab’s ability to carry out large-scale, coordinated assaults across multiple regions underscores its resilience and adaptability. The brief capture of Balcad signals an increasing threat to Somalia’s capital. While U.S. airstrikes have helped disrupt militant advances, Somalia’s ground forces remain overstretched. Without reinforcements and renewed military offensives, the government risks losing further ground in the coming months.