According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Africa’s trade this year is expected to exceed earlier forecasts.
In April, imports were projected to grow by 6.5% and exports by only 0.6%. However, the latest estimates now indicate a 5.3% increase in exports and an 11.8% rise in imports.
Particularly after the U.S. tariffs implemented during President Donald Trump’s administration, it was expected that Africa would face a challenging trade environment. However, stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of 2025 prompted the WTO to revise its forecasts upward for all regions, including Africa.
Africa’s projected 11.8% import growth stands out as the highest among all regions globally. Considering the continent’s recent challenges, including political instability, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and fluctuating commodity prices, this represents a notably positive development.
SERVICE EXPORTS FALL SHORT OF EXPECTATIONS
In contrast, growth in service exports remains well below the desired level. The WTO projects that service exports from the continent will rise by only 1.3% in 2025, significantly lower than the global average of 4.6%.
This growth is expected to be supported mainly by the rise of digital services and AI-related trade, though its full impact is likely to become more evident in the coming years.
Countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, and Egypt, which have heavily invested in the digitalization of services, are expected to benefit the most, particularly in telecommunications, information technology, and financial services.
For 2026, the WTO forecasts that Africa’s exports will stagnate, while import growth will slow to 5.4%.
Even at this rate, Africa’s import growth will remain above the global average of 0.5%.
In short, these projections indicate that the continent will face both opportunities and challenges in the coming years.