The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) has forecasted that the current mpox outbreak in Africa will continue to see an increase in cases over the next four weeks but is expected to stabilize by early 2025. The viral disease, primarily spread through close contact, has rapidly spread across 20 African nations, causing widespread concern.
Mpox, which causes flu-like symptoms and fluid-filled lesions, is generally mild but can be fatal, particularly in those with weakened immune systems. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global health emergency in August, following the emergence of a new strain that spread from the Democratic Republic of Congo to neighboring countries.
Ngashi Ngongo, a spokesperson for the Africa CDC, shared a cautious yet optimistic outlook during a recent press briefing, stating, “We expect to see a plateau in cases after four weeks of intensified response efforts. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, we anticipate a significant reduction in case numbers as these efforts take hold.”
Despite these projections, significant challenges remain. Ngongo emphasized that surveillance and contact tracing are still critical hurdles in managing the outbreak. The Africa CDC is addressing these challenges by deploying additional resources to affected areas, including community health workers, epidemiologists, and infection prevention specialists, in an effort to enhance containment and reduce transmission.
The WHO’s advisory committee also voiced concerns about the adequacy of current surveillance systems, cautioning that it remains too early to lift the global health emergency declaration. The organization highlighted the continuing spread of the virus, the operational difficulties in the field, and the urgent need for a unified response across countries and international partners to prevent further escalation.
As of this year, Africa CDC data indicates that more than 59,000 mpox cases have been reported across 20 African countries, with 1,164 deaths. The outbreak has underscored the critical need for coordinated international action to control its spread and mitigate its impact.
