Members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee have expressed growing concern over what they describe as the United States’ diminishing influence in East Africa and the Horn of Africa, warning that the region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to foreign rivalries, instability, and governance challenges.
The remarks came during a hearing titled “East Africa and the Horn: At a Turning Point or Breaking Point?” held on May 13. Lawmakers and expert witnesses, including Michelle Gavin, Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, offered critical assessments of U.S. foreign policy in the region and highlighted several countries where tensions, violence, and foreign competition are reportedly escalating.
Sudan: A Proxy Battleground
Committee members and witnesses described Sudan as the epicenter of a worsening humanitarian crisis, with famine reportedly already taking hold in multiple regions. According to Gavin, various international actors—including Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Iran, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia—are allegedly backing rival factions in the Sudanese conflict. The UAE has been accused of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while Russia is reportedly courting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in hopes of securing access to the Red Sea.
South Sudan and Chad: At Risk of Spillover
The Senate hearing also highlighted fears that the conflict in Sudan could destabilize neighboring countries. South Sudan was described as “teetering on the edge” of renewed civil war, with Chad facing growing fragility due to regional instability.
Ethiopia and Eritrea: Rising Tensions
Lawmakers expressed concern over Ethiopia’s internal divisions and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stated ambition to reclaim access to the Red Sea. This has reportedly strained relations with Eritrea and other regional actors. The Committee suggested the need for renewed mediation and support for the Pretoria Agreement, a prior effort to address Ethiopia’s conflicts.
Somalia: Security Concerns and Foreign Influence
Somalia was described as continuing to face threats from extremist groups such as al-Shabaab, which was characterized by witnesses as one of al-Qaeda’s most active affiliates. Concerns were also raised over Somalia’s recent diplomatic engagement with Iran, which some senators argued could increase Tehran’s regional influence.
Kenya: Strategic Realignment
Kenya, traditionally a close U.S. partner, has drawn scrutiny from senators after President William Ruto referred to Kenya and China as “co-architects of a new world order” during a visit to Beijing. Some committee members interpreted the remarks as a potential shift in allegiance. Michelle Gavin testified that while the U.S. has focused on its relationship with President Ruto, it may have missed an opportunity to support the broader Kenyan public’s demand for stronger anti-corruption efforts.
Djibouti: Military Competition
Djibouti remains home to both U.S. and Chinese military bases, and was cited as a case study in the broader strategic rivalry unfolding across the Red Sea. China’s port investments and naval activity in the region were presented as indicators of a long-term plan to project influence in East Africa.
Uganda and Tanzania: Warning Signs Ahead of Elections
The committee also discussed what it described as an “alarming rise” in political violence in Uganda and Tanzania in the run-up to upcoming elections. Witnesses warned that ignoring early signs of unrest could lead to broader instability.
Foreign Competition: Gulf States, Iran, and China
Gulf countries including the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—as well as Türkiye and Iran—were mentioned repeatedly as actors investing heavily in the region’s political and economic sectors. Senators alleged that these powers often operate with long-term strategic visions, sometimes supporting opposing sides in regional conflicts.
Call for a U.S. Strategic Reset
According to committee members, the U.S. currently lacks a coherent strategy for East Africa and the Red Sea corridor. Witnesses pointed to longstanding issues such as understaffed embassies, reduced foreign aid, and an overreliance on personal relationships with regional leaders. Michelle Gavin urged the development of a unified Red Sea strategy that bridges African and Middle Eastern policy domains.
She also advocated for increased support for independent media, deeper commercial ties, and a greater focus on youth engagement and institutional partnerships—warning that failure to act could leave the region increasingly aligned with U.S. adversaries.
While no formal policy changes were announced during the hearing, senators from both parties agreed on the urgent need for renewed diplomatic attention, strategic investment, and a long-term vision for the United States’ engagement with East Africa. The region, they argued, is at a pivotal moment—and without sustained commitment, the U.S. risks ceding influence to better-prepared global competitors.