Zimbabwe is grappling with growing political uncertainty as pressure mounts on President Emmerson Mnangagwa to step down amid allegations of corruption and economic mismanagement.
On Monday, major cities, including the capital Harare, were largely deserted as security forces were deployed in large numbers to prevent protests called by a faction within the ruling Zanu-PF party. Authorities reported the arrest of at least 95 people on charges of inciting public violence, raising concerns about further unrest.
Despite the turmoil, Mnangagwa’s supporters have dismissed claims that his leadership is under threat. “The president is not facing ouster. What happened was merely social media noise calling for demonstrations, which did not materialize,” said Farai Marapira, Zanu-PF’s director of information, in a statement.
A Divided Zanu-PF
Mnangagwa, who took power in 2017 following a military coup that removed longtime leader Robert Mugabe, is currently serving his second and final term, set to end in 2028. However, Zanu-PF’s announcement in January that it seeks to extend his rule until 2030 has deepened internal divisions.
One faction within the ruling party remains loyal to Mnangagwa, while another is pushing for Vice President Constantino Chiwenga to replace him. The opposition to Mnangagwa has gained momentum in recent weeks, particularly with the defection of war veterans who previously supported him.
Among them is Blessed Geza, a prominent war veteran known by his wartime alias Comrade Bombshell, who has become a vocal critic of Mnangagwa. Geza has accused the president and top officials of widespread corruption and economic mismanagement. His outspokenness led to his expulsion from Zanu-PF and accusations of treason from the government.
While Mnangagwa denies any plans to extend his presidency, his political moves suggest otherwise. This week, billionaire businessman Kudakwashe Tagwirei, a key financial backer of the ruling party, was appointed to the Zanu-PF Central Committee, fueling speculation about his potential role in the succession battle.
Chiwenga has also been vocal about corruption within Mnangagwa’s inner circle, hinting at tensions between the two leaders. During a January event, he indirectly criticized associates of the president, stating, “Our Vision 2030 is for all of us, not just corrupt ‘tenderpreneurs.’”
What is Next for Zimbabwe?
Political analyst Rashweat Mukundu believes that the growing power struggle within Zanu-PF is a battle for control of the party. “President Mnangagwa either wants to extend his rule beyond 2028, which is unconstitutional, or he is setting the stage to handpick a successor who may not be Vice President Chiwenga,” Mukundu told.
He added that Zanu-PF has never undergone a peaceful transition of power in its six-decade history, and Mnangagwa has yet to establish a lasting legacy. “If he truly wants to be remembered positively, he should silence calls for constitutional amendments to extend his rule,” Mukundu said.
Other analysts point to Mnangagwa’s close ties with controversial business figures as a key reason for his dwindling popularity. Political observer Mpumelelo Hondo noted that the president’s association with individuals like businessman Wicknell Chivayo, who has been accused of failing to deliver on government contracts while flaunting his wealth, has eroded his credibility.
Trade unionist Zivaishe Zhou argued that Mnangagwa’s failure to fulfill his promises of economic and democratic reforms has contributed to growing discontent, even within Zanu-PF. “He came to power in 2017 promising change, but his government has been marked by favoritism, cronyism, and corruption,” Zhou said.
With Zimbabwe’s political stability at stake, some experts believe the military will play a decisive role in determining the country’s future leadership. “A closer look at Zimbabwe’s political landscape shows that Zanu-PF and the military have been deeply intertwined since independence in 1980,” said political analyst Stanford Nyatsanza. “Ultimately, the faction that secures military backing will likely come out on top.”